Saturday, December 31, 2011

Goodbye 2011 - A Wild & Crazy Year

Oh, and a nicely profitable year as well !

Here is what I will remember about 2011

S$P 500 closes at 1257.60 --- 0.0% flat (actually down by 0.04 points, or 0.0032%, while trading in a wild & wide range of 1074 - 1370)

My trading accounts did substantially better ... if I posted the number, you probably would not believe me (hint: think John Paulson in reverse ...).

Despite my good fortune in the markets, I still made too many mistakes, some very costly.
This needs to improve.

Important events of 2011 included:

- Osama bin Laden killed by US Special Forces ... putting in a market top.
- QE 2 ending, taking away the crack cocaine that drove the market relentlessly higher since Sept. 2010 thru the bin Laden top & until it ended in June 2011.
- The ongoing Democrat/Republican/Obama skirmishes regarding out of control government spending & debt, culminating in the debt ceiling summer drama, which led to ...
- S&P downgrading the United States Credit rating in August, which precipitated ...
- A massive stock market correction in August & September and market volatility through year end, which was exacerbated by ...
- Europe ... which, as hard as it is to believe, is actually worse off than we are, with all sorts of sovereign and bank problems, a troubled currency union, a recession, austerity, etc. etc.

Which takes us to 2012, a presidential election year (and also the year that the Mayan calendar apparently ends, along with the world according to some).

What will be in 2012 ? Nobody knows, but it is likely that the European drama will continue to play out, there will be more sovereign debt rating excitement and market volatility.

In the U.S., the political gridlock will only intensify as the election cycle kicks in to high gear.

We should also keep an eye on the BRIC countries, as India is slowing, China is probably slowing, Brazil too. And Russia is a mess. Finally, will the US stabilize and grow, or will we slip back into recession.

My goal is to remain extremely flexible regarding my overall approach to markets and market conditions, and continue to try to be well hedged, while focusing on short and medium term profit opportunities.

If you care to learn more about my 2011 trading performance and the strategies that helped achieve them, feel free to get in touch.

Finally, here is what I will remember most about 2011:

My Green Bay Packers winning Super Bowl XLV !

Followed by a 14-1 start heading into 2012, the final week and the playoffs, and hopefully back-to-back titles !

Happy New Year & Good Luck in 2012.

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